The Future of The Economy

Attended the annual breakfast with Neville Norman at AIM. Here are his forecasts for 2009/10:

GDP Growth.
Govt forecast is for -0.5%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is 1.8%
Neville 95% confidence range is +0.5% to 2.9%
So, What Recession?

Dwellings Growth.
Govt forecast is for 0%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is +4%
Neville 95% confidence range is +1% to 7%
So, What Recession?

Non-dwelling Construction.
Govt forecast is for -26%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is -12%
Neville 95% confidence range is -25% to -5%
OK. That's not terrific.

Investments in Machinery and Equipment.
Govt forecast is for -16.5%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is -8%
Neville 95% confidence range is +15% to 0%
Not great either.

Unemployment Rate.
Govt forecast is for 8.3%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is 6.8%
Neville 95% confidence range is 5.9% to 8.5%
It's currently 5.7%, up from 4.3% a year ago. But USA is at 9.4% up from 5.5%.

CPI Growth.
Govt forecast is for +1.75%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is +2.8%
Neville 95% confidence range is +1.5% to 4.5%
So, inflation under control.

Wage-Price Index
Govt forecast is for +3.3%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is +4.2%
Neville 95% confidence range is +3% to 5.8%
A bit of wage pressure. We deserve a raise.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Can Satan cast out Satan?

Image
Lyle Shelton, spokesblogger for the Australian Christian Lobby wrote: "New totalitarian rainbow law in Canada has decreed that parents who disagree with their child changing gender are guilty of “abuse” and could face having the state remove their child by force." So what's wrong here? This might be the truth as ACL sees it. Trouble is, it is simply not accurate. And not fair reporting. The "new law" for which Lyle generously provides a link , makes no such decree. I've read it all the way through. Please point out what I missed. Lyle goes on: "Parents who are concerned that transitioning is not in their child's best interests are automatically classified as “abusive”, according to Ontario’s Minister of Children and Youth Services Michael Coteau." Really? Automatically? Couldn't find that in the Act. Lyle suggests that this is what the Ontario Minister of Children and Youth Services says. I'd better check that out. Oh. ...
Read more

Why my Church is wrong on same-sex marriage

     I'm a Presbyterian. Pray for me.      In 2013, the Presy General Assembly of Australia affirmed the biblical definition of marriage as a “lifelong  union of one man with one woman, voluntarily entered into, excluding all others…”      The proposition is not unreasonable. Marriage, according to the Bible, is one man and one woman. It's possible to debate if this is what the Bible says, of course. It's not hard to point out that lots of polygamists are splattered about the early part of the Christian Bible, but, well, nobody was perfect then.      Anyhow, let's now cavil. This is, as I say, a very reasonable position. The Church is certainly entitled to say it. And to believe it. Indeed, I rather like it myself, probably because Judy and I entered into such a relationship almost 48 years ago. And we're still in it. So, if the Church wants to say it's the proper definition, that's perfectly fine. Fo...
Read more

In A Plane Again

Image
A380 leaves Sydney while I wait.      11:54pm at Home. 2:54pm in Bethlehem. Something else in Bangkok.      We’ve got about 3 hours to go to Bangkok and I am still wide awake. Ain’t the human body weird? Normally I would just be waking up momentarily to the sound of a computer shutting down in a nearby room and lights being switched on, or maybe books being taken out for a little midnight reading. Instead I am in 40G on this 747 somewhere over Indonesia. According to the flight map on my little TV screen a bit north of Bali, and a bit east of Surabaya. I’ve been to both places before, I think. Although my only sight of Bali would have been a transition through the Denpasar airport. Although maybe I am dreaming that up. I’ve been so many places, I can’t remember which ones I went to, and which ones I thought I might. Have. Went to.      You can see that air travel isn’t good for my brain. Nor are migraines. One of whic...
Read more