Posts

Showing posts from 2009

Bushfires and Trash

Attended a debrief on the bushfires today. Everyone was there. CFA, SES, NGOs, DHS, DPI et al. What are the main things that went wrong? Communications. Lack of role clarity - agencies not knowing what their role was, and the coordinators not knowing either. And handling the public response. Stories from the agency people at the front line about "so much trash". Old toys. Unwearable clothes. Unsuitable items (lanwmowers! - think about it). Broken stilletos. [I suggested unbroken stilletos would be fine, of course]

Everyone says we need to change the public response. It feels like holding back the tide. But there is hope. 20-30 years ago everyone expected overseas aid agencies to ship actual goods in response to a disaster overseas. I remember chartering planes (or part of their cargo space at least) from Melbourne to other points of the globe. No-one does that now, and if anyone suggested that a World Vision or an Oxfam do it, they would be politely refused. So, consistent ac…

The Future of The Economy

Attended the annual breakfast with Neville Norman at AIM. Here are his forecasts for 2009/10:

GDP Growth.
Govt forecast is for -0.5%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is 1.8%
Neville 95% confidence range is +0.5% to 2.9%
So, What Recession?

Dwellings Growth.
Govt forecast is for 0%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is +4%
Neville 95% confidence range is +1% to 7%
So, What Recession?

Non-dwelling Construction.
Govt forecast is for -26%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is -12%
Neville 95% confidence range is -25% to -5%
OK. That's not terrific.

Investments in Machinery and Equipment.
Govt forecast is for -16.5%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is -8%
Neville 95% confidence range is +15% to 0%
Not great either.

Unemployment Rate.
Govt forecast is for 8.3%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is 6.8%
Neville 95% confidence range is 5.9% to 8.5%
It's currently 5.7%, up from 4.3% a year ago. But USA is at 9.4% up from 5.5%.

CPI Growth.
Govt forecast is for +1.75%
Neville's Most Likely Outcome is +2.8%
Nevill…

Communities in Control Conference

Spent the last couple of days at the races. Maybe 700 people from community orgs from around Australia. Held at the Moonee Valley Racecourse. Inside the building. Not on the track. Here are some reflections:

Paying Respects to the original owners has become PC. Of course, it IS worthy. Reminds us every time that all us whitefellas are migrants. But I look forward to it becoming more than mere words.

Jenny Macklin: Hard for a politician to make a good speech. Too many risks. Still - avoid protectionist response to threat. Be inclusive and open. It's the Aussie way. Respect, and include, minorities. It's all good.
there's a rise in child protection reports during times of social/financial stress.Ambivelence about the eulogising of Richard Pratt for his great support of the social works of many in the room. Are robber barons justified by their good works? Eloise Waislitz, daughter of Richard and chair of the Foundation, says Dad loved Australia! I guess it was pretty good to him…